WIN at DraftKings MLB ⚾️ Baseball PROJECTIONS, MLB News REACTION, Baseball Research MLB BETTING Odds

– If you missed parts 1 through 5, make sure you dive into the
rest of my MLB DFS series. Today we’re going to talk
about how to use projections, news, Vegas totals like a pro
and draft kings and fanduel for baseball and we’re starting right now. (lighting and thunder) What’s up guys? Joe Holka
here, welcome to another daily fantasy sports and betting video. If this is your first time here and you want to become a
profitable draft kings player and get better at betting, start now by subscribing to the channel. Make sure you click
that notification bell, so you don’t miss anything along the way. If you’re already a Holkamaniac, you know exactly what time it is. Time to smash that like
button, really appreciate that. Let’s get started. So, there are plenty of
sports where you can probably gain some value by
watching the games on TV. Is MLB one of those sports? (lightening and thunder) – The sport with the least
value in watching the games, I think everyone agrees is baseball. So, like it’s not like
there is no value in it. And I do think there’s
value in some of these, broadcasters that are sharp
that are following the team the entire season, and
sometimes during the broadcast will provide insight that you
wouldn’t hear anywhere else. – Mh-mm So like, sneakily that’s
part of watch the games. – It’s like you get nothing
out of watching at bat. – I think Dive mentioned that
for NBA, it even just see when you’re watching a lot of time
you’ll pick up like a little kind of nugget that is actually useful. – Yeah, that no one else could know, there’s no way you could get
that information anywhere else. – So to the short answer would be it’s more of a data driven sport. The longer answer would be
that when in the context of thinking about whether
watching sports adds value to you. You need to think of it in the context of what could it possibly add value. There’s things that you could
be just news and information and that’s stuff anybody can kind of get if they watch the games
and maybe pay attention to. And then’s there, like,
scouting level stuff. And then you need to decide if you’re good enough to spot that. I am not. So, that part of the equation
will never be valuable to me. Like, I’m not gonna see
a guy’s like swing path, and be like he’s changed his swing. I’ll rely on data to
show like launch angles. But there is stuff like
news that you can pick up on when watching like an NBA broadcast. And they’ll say oh, you know
so and so was complaining a little bit about their ankle issue. And it might not be a guy
that’s always listed on the injury report where you’re like, oh, okay. I’ve got better
information there now. Or, you might see a substitution pattern that they’re talking
about and they’re like oh, the coach said he wanted to play a little bit smaller tonight
to play against this opponent. And you can file that
away for future reference. MLB doesn’t really have that. There’s not you know a
ton of substitutions. There’s not as much injury level risk that you have to worry about. You might hear some of that on occasion. But in general, like the stuff
that’s talked about during baseball games is often old anecdotes and random stories that
are totally useless. So, I think it’s the sport that requires the least amount of personal viewing. But for me, I always
think you should have that context framed of whether
it’s valuable to you based on what your skill sets are in
terms of assessing the sport. – Yeah, I’m with you. I
honestly only feel like I trust my eyes for NHL just because
I’ve been around that my entire life. (bell chimes) I think that I’d probably
be more confused, Like if I watched a baseball game and I guess like for some
reason was like oh man, ball’s really coming off
of Trout’s bat hard today. – (Laughing) Yeah, yeah. – You know what I mean,
I’d rather just look at the hard hits data for that type of thing. (lightening and thunder) By the way guys, if you’ve
ever found any value in my videos or live streams, one of the best ways to support
what I’m doing here for free is to throw me the follow over on Twitter. If you’re new to the community,
I do a ton of content over on Instagram as well. Really trying to build that
up so if you’d take a second, and make sure you’re following
me over there as well. I’d really appreciate it. Was fortunate enough to have Derek Carty on my stream for MLB week. He is the mastermind behind the bat baseball projection system. So I wanted to dive a
little bit deeper into what that entails, and how he’s
going to use it going forward. (thunder and lightening) – I do want to start
with bat though, Derek. So, let’s walk though this a little bit. I know that there’s a lot of people that are probably very familiar with this. But I do kind of want to go
through it, talk a little bit about your methodology
what goes into the bat. I know that this is your baby. – Yeah, it really is. It’s
something I’ve been building for I think probably close to 10 years now, You know, over 10000 15000 hours. – Drew’s been watching
this whole time too. – (laughing) Apparently,
I guess I really am old at this point, huh. – Yeah. – But yeah basically
anything that you would want to be in it is pretty much in it. You know anything that
affects play on the field, it gets quantified and accounted for. You know the opposing hitter
and pitcher, the ballpark, the umpire, catcher pitch framing, the exact defensive alignment,
different weather factors, and platoon splits, and
all kinds of good stuff. It all gets baked in, and
it projects what every player is going to do
every single day basically. – Man, it seems like it’s so inclusive of so many different things. I assume you’ve back-tested
a lot of this stuff too. Because we talk a lot about
kind of how a lot of times being simpler in DFS is
better in a lot of sports. I think there’s a lot of noise out there that probably doesn’t matter a ton. Talk a little bit about your process and actually getting to some
of these key metrics. I’m sure a lot of that’s
proprietary, but give us a little bit of a peek
on where they’re current. – Yeah, so simpler definitely
is better in a lot of ways like there’s a lot of things
that people look at in DFS. I’m sure we’ll get into
BVP and hot streaks and all that kind of stuff
that just does not matter. So getting rid of that stuff
is a great way to simplify, and just focusing on the main things. You know if you are just trying to get a very general baseline
focusing on the quality of the opposing pitcher and the
ballpark and stuff like that. Things that are relatively
easy to quantify or people have a descent feel for. That’s great as a starting
point and something that is much more important than all these you know slicing and dicing
splits and crap like that. But there is also lots
of other small edges to be gained by quantifying everything. And that’s kind of what the bat does, it kind of takes it to the next level. It quantifies all these little things and those little edges,
they add up to make kind of big edges especially in this day and age where people are getting smarter. So I think a lot of times
when people think of models, they think of okay so
I’m gonna give the park, you know, 20% weight, and
the pitcher 30% weight, and the umpire 10%. And, it’s not like that
at all for The Bat. Everything is organic, so everything gets it’s own underlying thing. So if the park boosts
home runs by 15% and the pitcher allows home runs 5%
more than average and you know pitch framing contributes
another 3% or whatever it is. It all happens organically. Each thing has it’s own thing,
and then it gets combined. So in some cases, maybe
the park is really driving a projection and other
cases maybe the park is having no impact at all. It’s all you know organic
to the specific situation. – Yeah, I mean whatever you’ve been doing, it’s been going well obviously. I was listening on Davis’
podcast like I said. You actually were one of the, I believe, the most accurate projections
for season for long. Is that right for the last year? – Yeah fantasy pros and fan
graphs, and one other one I can’t remember the name,
all basically found that the Bat was the most accurate
season long projection system last year which was really cool. I kind of, I loved seeing that. – Yeah, I bet. Do you have any idea, like
what would you attribute that kind of massive success to? I’m sure there’s still some
things you’re doing a little bit differently than others if
they performed that well. – Yeah, it’s a little
tough to say just because you don’t know exactly what’s
going into the other system. Every system is kind of it’s
own black box type of thing. And I try to let people know
as much as possible what’s going into the Bat without going into all the nitty gritty of it. But I mean the page that you have up, there’s a lot of stuff that
goes into that obviously. And I think, like I was saying before all these little small edges, I do think they do tend to add up and I do think that a lot of
the math and methodology that goes on behind the scenes
of The Bat that is really boring to talk about, I
think it contributes a lot. There’s a lot of really good
things that go into it and it’s all accounted for in a good way. A lot of people will look
at versus right handed or versus left handed
splits and they matter, but they matter a lot
more if you are actually running the math on them properly. And that kind of thing I
think gives The Bat an edge that a lot of people don’t
even necessarily see. (lightening and thunder) – Just wanna take a second
and truly thank everyone that is joining the amazon crew. I’ve been blown away by
everyone that’s willing to just help out the channel and do so for free. It’s really the best way you
can kind of support my work if you do like my work, is
just using that Amazon link for your day-to-day
shopping over at Amazon. People are using it as their homepage. Man it’s been amazing. So, just wanted to say that. If you do join the Amazon
crew, make sure you let me know in the comments so I can get
you that shout out on one of the videos that’s coming up next. One of the biggest
differences that I’ve found in MLB verses other sports
is the news aspect. We tend to get these lineups
at kind of a slower pace than a sport like NBA so I wanted to
talk about that a little bit. (lightening and thunder) – For the most part, you’re correct. We will see if there are changes this year now that MLB teams have to
submit their lineups officially through Vegas basically
before we get the information. So it’ll be interesting
to see if that time window that we usually have to build
lineup shrinks a little bit because usually lineups
are out three or four hours in advance depending on the beet rider, depending on the team and what not. So it’ll be interesting
to see if that shrinks, but in general the only
things you are really like kind of monitoring right up
until lock with MLB is usually maybe a few lineups from the later games. And then mostly if there’s a
weather situation evolving, which is a totally different aspect compared to every other sport. You know we’ll talk
about weather in the NFL with regards to like wind and
different things, but rarely does it affect the playing
time of individual players. Whereas with MLB you
can have postponements, you can have rain delays that
impact how long a pitcher can go, all sorts of different things. So weather ends up being
the thing you end up spending the most time around
lock on the occasional slate. – With NBA specifically
back when I first started that was the edge, was
paying attention to the news before lock because a lot of people didn’t even pay attention to it at all. And like now it’s like
everyone gets lineup alerts from all these different sites
like Fantasy Laps will send you a lineup alert, and
let you know people. It’s like there’s not really
a big edge in that anymore. So it just kind of
shifts to something else. It’s like, well maybe everyone’s
overreacting to news now? Right? That happens. It’s sometimes
guys will just be like oh this guy is in the starting lineup. This is the thing that just
broke five minutes ago. They’re in a panic, they’re
trying to switch their lineup over, and they’re not
taking time to analyze so. I think in just reacting
to news in general, a lot of the news you can anticipate what is going to happen. Like, you know guys either
are going to be out or in. So, you need to make those
decisions way ahead of time, and not worry about oh,
wait, do I play this guy or do I not play this guy? Too many people right now are
waiting until they hear the news to finally make the
decision of whether they should play that guy or not. When all that work should
be done ahead of time. (thunder and lightening) – So maybe you’ve been
playing DFS for a while, haven’t seen a ton of results. One thing that you could do
to kind of take you’re game to the next level is take
advantage of the one on one coaching that I have available. So, if you want a little
bit more information on that But if you prefer to
continue to just learn in a group setting, a lot
of people have Amazon Prime these days they don’t even
realize they have access to a free Twitch prime subscription. So that really helps me out. For free, you get access to
our premium discord chat, as well as a bunch other
subscriber-only perks and regardless if you’re
taking advantage of that you’re really doing yourself
disservice if you’re at least not watching the live streams on Twitch. So, make
sure you throw me that follow so that you know when I go live. So if you found my work
through NFL, maybe it was NHL, it’s possible MLB isn’t
your primary DFS sport and that’s why you’re here
watching this series in the first place. So I always want to try and
give you guys a little bit of parallels to help kind
of bring us full circle on why MLB is different,
but also pretty similar in some ways to some other DFS sports. (thunder and lightening) Sea Bass 13 and the Chaz
asking about our opinions on NHL versus MLB in correlation. I do think it’s similar but
I think it’s very different when you look at goalies
versus pitchers, so. – Sure – Goalies versus pitchers number one, their prices of a pitcher. There’s a much larger
range of prices at pitcher than it is at goalie typically. So it’s easier to correlate with goalies because you can usually fit
them into whatever kind of stack you’re trying to use. Also, I will say that goalie,
the way that scoring is on Draft Kings for goalies,
goalies are probably, as far as getting the win,
that point value is probably double what it should be at least. So the wins don’t matter
near as much for pitchers. So I would say that that’s a
big difference in it for sure. And there’s just more
variances, I think involved with goalie for that reason
because the win is so heavily kind of impacted by what their
final score is going to be. Pitcher you can probably be at least kind of what everyone else been
telling me so far this week. It’s a much more predictable
type of position just because of the K’s and the
different kind of strikeout metrics out there. So, I guess would you agree on that? I know you haven’t played
a ton of hockey yet, but pitcher versus goalie,
people saying it’s the same, that like bothers me a lot. – Yeah, I think it bothers me. I don’t know. I think
there’s a little more. I think randomness in the
short term for both sports is pretty equal or at least close to it. You’re not necessarily stacking or pairing the pitcher with
your stack or whatever. Maybe it works sometimes, but I definitely don’t do it on purpose. It’s not a floor thing. A pitcher by himself can
definitely get the points he needs by just striking out guys
and going though innings without getting a win. Yeah, it helps but it’s not
as valuable as it is in hockey I’d say where it’s like 3 points,
every save feels like it’s point 0, 0, 0, 1. I don’t know. Every time I
play that point, that sport. So I don’t know. For me, the
win is much more valuable on one side making the
goalie much different. – The two are very, very
different and the reason I’d say the two are very
different is my admittedly limited knowledge of NHL
analytics is that actual goal keeper skill sets are
really difficult to decipher in terms of how big of an
impact they’re making, and how wide of a distribution
there is between goalie skill. And in pitchers, there’s
a huge distribution in pitcher’s skill sets. There’s only a few
pitchers that can literally strikeout 10 a game. There’s not very many at all. And so, there’s a wide
distribution of skill set, and as you alluded to the
win, the thing that people are often leading in terms
of their decision making with picking like a goalie
or a starting pitcher, is worth so much more in
NHL in terms of the total composition of points that a
goalie can score on given night than the pitcher. The pitcher is such a small percentage. I mean you’re talking
a win of like 4 points or whatever it is on draft kings like. – It’s not a big deal. – It’s like a sixth of what you want your pitcher scoring anyway. Doesn’t really move the needle. So I think the two are very different from a DFS perspective. I also think in terms of just
distributions of the skill sets in terms of the player
pool that’s available is very different as well. Not all pitchers are
the same not to say that all goalies are the same,
but in terms of the NHL, I believe that the overall
skillset that’s funneling up into the NHL, there’s not a
lot of difference between the top goalie and the worst goalie. (thunder and lightening) – So one of my favorite things
to do when trying to leverage ownership in tournaments is
to look at the Vegas lines. If you just look past that top tier, a lot of times you can get
drastically lower ownership. So, I wanted to talk about that now. (thunder and lightening) If you even move past, like that top tier, even like the top one or two
teams of the imply total, it’s like you get
drastically lower ownership, like just because like
there’s people that are blindly building lineups
just off of Vegas lines. So I kind of like to move
past that top tier at times. Is that something in baseball
you’ve noticed as well? Like, if you just look past
a couple of those top teams you’ll get pretty descent
ownership discounts? – It does happen in
baseball as well similarly. The only challenge is
that sometimes the pricing is a little bit harsher in
baseball than it feels like it is in the NHL from the few
times I’ve played NHL. – Yeah prices don’t care
in NHL. They don’t care. – Yeah, and so a lot of
times you can still stack the best teams in NHL and
not really have a huge impact on your overall roster. Sometimes it’s really
hard to do that in MLB. Whether it’s like the Red Sox
and they got three hitters at fifty-five hundred or more. Or whether it’s Coors Field games. Sometimes those guys get
priced up really aggressively. So, sometimes you’ll have
just because of price like the third or fourth
highest implied total be like the chalky team,
so sometimes you get that. But once you get to the middle
of the pack implied totals, those teams are usually unowned. (thunder and lightening) – If you want to learn how
to become a profitable daily fantasy sports player how
to get better at betting start now by hitting that
subscribe icon in the bottom right-hand corner so
you don’t miss anything. Have a ton of courses on demand
on YouTube here for other sports as well, so be
sure in check those out. Thank you so much for watching. I’ll see you guys next time.

4 thoughts on “WIN at DraftKings MLB ⚾️ Baseball PROJECTIONS, MLB News REACTION, Baseball Research MLB BETTING Odds

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